LOS ANGELES — As Braves third baseman Chipper Jones is making his farewell tour around Major League Baseball before he retires at the end of the season, the recurring question has been whether he is dead bang, first ballot Hall of Famer.

“Why not? He’s pretty much at the top of every category,” said Dodgers manager Don Mattingly on Wednesday at Dodger Stadium. “He’s played a long time. He’s been consistent. He’s been productive. I mean, yeah.”

Actually, that description accurately depicts, Mattingly, who isn’t in the Hall of Fame and may never be.

Like Mattingly, Jones has been a fine player with excellent credentials, but he plays a position that’s inhabited in the Hall by some of the all-time greats. There are only 14 third basemen enshrined. Of the most recent, Wade Boggs and George Brett each have in excess of 3,000 hits. Mike Schmidt and Eddie Matthews both hit more than 500 homers.

Jones went into action against the Dodgers on Wednesday night with 2,624 hits and 457 homers. Very nice. Schmidt’s 548 homers are tops among third basemen. Brett’s 3,154 hits are the most among the pure third sackers. As a switch-hitter, Eddie Murray is way beyond Chipper in both categories with 3,255 hits and 504 homers. Mickey Mantle, a fair switch-hitter in his own right, has the most at 536.

Jones is a .304 lifetime hitter. Boggs hit .328. As the stat freaks reminded me last winter when I left Astros first baseman Jeff Bagwell of my Hall of Fame ballot, I should have taken a close look at OPS — on base, plus slugging percentage. Bagwell’s .948 OPS is 22nd in history, but it’s still far down the list of first basemen.

Using the same metric, Jones at .935 is 31st. Mantle at .977, is 11th and the top switch-hitter. Alex Rodriguez at 20th with a .952 OPS is tops among third baseman. A-Rod, who came up as a shortstop, has played his entire nine-year Yankees tenure at third. Veering away from third baseman for a moment, Todd Helton, a first baseman, is 15th at .970. Larry Walker, an outfielder, is 16th at .965. Neither Helton nor Walker are getting into the Hal of Fame any time soon, if ever.

He may ultimately be voted in, but this all puts Chipper firmly on the Hall of Fame bubble.

MESA, Ariz. –- Padres outfielder Kyle Blanks will likely start the regular season on the disabled list if he doesn’t quickly recover from an impingement in his left shoulder, manager Bud Black said on Monday.

Blanks has been out for the past five days with soreness in the shoulder and his immediate return is not on the horizon.

“He got a cortisone shot a couple of days ago and he’s feeling much better,” Black said in his office at the Peoria Sports Complex only hours before the Padres played the Cubs at Hohokam Park. “We’ll see how it resolves itself in the next couple of days. Then there will be a clearer indication of what’s happening.”

Blanks’ injury comes at a time when Carlos Quentin is recovering from arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. Quentin will miss at least the first month of the season, leaving left field wide open for now with the season opener slated against the Dodgers at Petco Park on April 5.

“It’s kind of a bummer for Kyle just because of the Quentin situation,” Black said. “That provided an opening for him to get a lot of at bats and maybe make the club. That window is sort of closing.”

Blanks split his 2011 season between the Minors and San Diego, playing in 55 games for the Padres. His 2010 season was cut short after undergoing Tommy John ligament replacement surgery on his right elbow. Last year, he batted .229 with seven homers and 26 RBIs. Blanks is batting .208 (5-for-24) this spring with a homer and two RBIs in nine games.

I voted for Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Jack Morris, Rafael Palmeiro, Tim Raines, Lee Smith and Alan Trammell.

It’s a very down year for first-year possibilities on the National Baseball Hall of Fame ballot distributed this month to eligible members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. There’s not a single newbie who comes even close.

We can all vote for as many as 10 candidates. I stuffed my ballot with nine of them, eight who I voted for last year with the addition of Larkin. I’m voting for the Reds shortstop for the first time. It is his third year on the BBWAA ballot.

When anybody says statistics don’t change, they’re right. But strength of the ballot does. In my mind, he had a wonderful, but borderline Hall of Fame career. He was overshadowed defensively in his own National League by Ozzie Smith and completely eclipsed in the American League by Cal Ripken Jr., the two Hall of Fame shortstops who are the comparables in Larkin’s era. But this better be his year. Trammell, who had a similarly long and distinguished career for the Tigers, should also not be ignored.

This is what Larkin has to contend with in the next four years:

What surely will be a controversial vote next year will include all-time home run leader Barry Bonds, 354-game winner Roger Clemens, 3,000-hit-club member Craig Biggio, 12-time All-Star Mike Piazza and Sammy Sosa, who slugged 609 homers. The ballot for 2014 induction will boast a trio of great pitchers in Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Mike Mussina, plus slugger Frank Thomas. The group for 2015 will include another great group of pitchers: No. 2 overall strikeout leader Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz, plus outfielder Gary Sheffield. And finally, the ballot for 2016 will offer outfielder Ken Griffey Jr., Yankees left-hander Andy Pettitte and closers Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner.

It’s not unheard of, but Larkin needs a big jump. In 2011, he garnered 62.1 percent — 361 of a possible 581 votes. Based on those figures, he must leap ahead 12.9 percent to gain election. He received 51.6 percent of the vote in 2010, his first year on the ballot. If not, it will be a long wait.

With the steroid era now about to fully infect the election process, the ballots from here on in are going to be very tough.

I’ve often thought that you have to take the players from that era on a case-by-case basis, but I’ve changed my opinion. The Mitchell Report revealed that great pitchers (Clemens and Eric Gagne) were perhaps as guilty of using performance-enhancing drugs as great hitters (McGwire and Bonds). It named utility players, bit players, lower level players and the top players. Thus, the playing field must be considered level. Otherwise, except for rare cases, no one really knows who did what.

Under those circumstances I believe as a voter that everyone should be painted with the same brush. Either you vote all the qualified candidates in or you don’t vote for anyone who is remotely suspected.

As a lifetime member of the BBWAA I take this vote very seriously. I have no desire to be judge, juror or soothsayer. So I’ve decided to judge those players within the context of the era during which they played, and if they’re deserving, vote them in.

Thus, my ballot again includes a player who failed a drug test (Palmeiro), a player who admitted that he used steroids (McGwire), and another who was tainted by the cocaine era of the 1980s (Raines). I believe all of them statistically belong in a Hall of Fame that already includes the likes of Gaylord Perry, who brashly admitted to throwing the spitter when he was active from 1962-83. That pitch was outlawed by Major League Baseball in 1920.

Palmeiro — on the ballot for the second time — may be statistically on the bubble to some, but not to me. His 569 homers and 3, 020 hits places him in rarified company as only the fourth player in Major League history to amass more than 500 homers and 3,000 base hits. The other three are Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Eddie Murray.

I’ve been among the 25 or so percent to vote for McGwire every year he’s been on the ballot. His 583 homers — 70 of them in 1998 and 65 in ’99 — are good enough. The home run race between McGwire and Sosa in ’98 put baseball back on the map after the strike that devastated the sport only a few years earlier. Since the steroid precusor Andro was found in McGwire’s locker — like many — I’ve long suspected him of using PEDs. His public apology didn’t change anything.

It’s the second time I’ve voted for Raines. Listening to Andre Dawson talk about him during his 2010 induction speech in Cooperstown made me take another look at Tim’s record. Certainly, he was the NL’s version of Rickey Henderson before his personal problems affected his career. He played 24 seasons, had 808 stolen bases, 2,605 hits and batted .294. Tony Perez was elected to the Hall with 2,732 hits and a .279 batting average.

And just a note on Jeff Bagwell: Rumors about possible steroid use don’t bother me. I just think he’s a very good player, but not of Hall of Fame caliber. His numbers are very similar to Steve Garvey — Bags .297 batting average to .294 for the Garv, 2,314 hits to 2,599, 449 homers to 272, 1,529 RBIs to 1,308 . But Garvey had two NL Championship Series MVPs, an NL MVP, an All-Star MVP, the longest consecutive game playing streak in NL history (1,207), one of the highest fielding percentages as a first baseman (.996) and an errorless season (1984). Garvey also played on five NL pennant winners and a World Series winner in ’81 with the Dodgers. Bagwell did almost none of this with the Astros. And Garvey didn’t get a sniff from the writers for the HOF.

That’s why I didn’t vote for Bagwell.

I’ve been fortunate in my 35 years of covering Major League Baseball to have sat in on the conversations and been able to absorb the managing skills of the best and the brightest of a few eras.

As a youngster, I cut my teeth on three years of covering Billy Martin with the Oakland A’s followed by three more when Dick Williams managed the San Diego Padres. They were ornery cusses and big drinkers, but I learned the nuances of managing a baseball game from them.

Neither suffered fools easily. Williams was once asked if had thought about lifting his pitcher in the early innings of a game with the bases loaded for a pinch-hitter. He told the unsuspecting reporter in very colorful terms never to enter his office again. No, that wasn’t me, but we certainly had our battles.

As time went by I got to know them all. Some of my favorites have retired in the last two years: Bobby Cox, Lou Piniella, Joe Torre and now Tony La Russa. I’ve known Piniella since he was a player with the Yankees, Torre since he managed the Mets during his first gig in the late 1970s, Cox since his initial tour with the Braves, beginning in 1978, and La Russa through his years with the A’s and the St. Louis Cardinals.

I feel honored to have been able to sit in the same room with them, either in a group or many times one on one, to pick their brains and chronicle how their thoughts on baseball have evolved. Williams and Martin would’ve thought it a challenge to their manhood to even have a bench coach. None existed during their time. The other quartet, who are all among the winningest managers in baseball history, adapted to or created a new environment.

Torre, after stints with the Mets, Braves and Cardinals, instilled a pride, discipline and professionalism in the clubhouse that was incomparable when he managed the Yankees to six American League pennants and four World Series titles. His teams didn’t have award winners or year-in-and-year out league leaders. They just simply played as a team and won.

Cox told me his secret to the great Braves era of 14 division titles in a row was largely due to his turning the reigns of the pitching staff over to Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and Greg Maddux, who were so smart that they were able to be their own coaches and guide the rest of the staff. If Cox had had the likes of Mariano Rivera as his closer he would have certainly won more than one World Series title.

La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan totally altered the game by installing Dennis Eckersley as a one-inning closer in the final inning and by establishing a series of setup men to bridge the gap between the starter and that essential component. Early on, La Russa embraced the notion of using statistics as a way of evaluating players, but in this era of Moneyball -– the book and the movie – he never totally embraced it.

“You’ve got to be careful, because I think about when I first came in the league years ago and I had no experience. I was a lousy player with no managing experience,” La Russa said before the World Series ended in the Cards’ favor last week. “You had all these great guys who managed for years, so preparation was the only way that myself and my staff could survive. We were looking for everything.

“I think a lot of those stats and tools, they’re helpful when you prepare. But they eliminate to a great degree the human element, which is a big part of every day that you play. Wherever those numbers are, that’s one starting place, and then you look at how a guy feels.”

Cliff Lee had a WAR of 6.9 this past season pitching for the Philadelphia Phillies. But that doesn’t account for the fact that he’s been terrible in his three most recent important starts: Games 1 and 5 of the 2010 World Series for Texas and Game 2 of this year’s National League Division Series. In the latter, he blew an early 4-0 lead to the Cards, who won the series in five games. Certainly, that one game alone is why the Phillies paid him $11 million this past season as a free agent.

Chris Carpenter of the Cards had a 3.7 WAR and earned $14.2 million from the Cardinals this past season. He was 4-0 in the postseason, winning the critical Game 5 of the NLDS over the Phillies and Game 7 over the Rangers in the World Series on three days’ rest.

In hindsight, who would you rather have had this postseason, Lee or Carpenter? Everything seems clearer in the tinted glare of hindsight. Doesn’t it? And that’s what these stats are all about: trying to predict future performance based on the past. But La Russa is right. The numbers and equations don’t take into account heart, character and what happened in a given player’s life that day. Is he prepared or depressed? Did he have a stomachache or a spat with his wife? Was he able to execute the game plan?

I’m a big proponent of working the count. And in Game 5 of the World Series in Arlington I was aghast when David Freese didn’t do it. After C.J. Wilson walked Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman to open the second inning, Freese swung at the first pitch and popped out to right. Likewise in the seventh, reliever Alexi Ogando walked the bases loaded, strolling Albert Pujols and Berkman intentionally to get to Freese, who again swung at the first pitch. Freese popped out to center, ending the inning, and the Rangers won the game, 4-2.

On the rainout day of Game 6 in St. Louis, I asked La Russa his thoughts about it and if he had spoken to Freese. His response was classic, Tony.

“Well, [he did it] because it was our tribute to all the scouts and baseball people that were dissed by Moneyball,” La Russa quipped. “That’s why I walked out of Moneyball.”

On base percentage and working the count are prime tactics of winning baseball in the Moneyball era. The idea is that if a batter gets on base he has a chance to produce a run. It doesn’t matter how he gets on base: walk, hit by pitch, hit. Just get on base. And don’t get thrown out on base trying to steal or forfeit an out through a sacrifice bunt.

Here’s La Russa’s counter to that argument:

“On-base percentage is one of the most dangerous concepts of the last seven, eight years because it forces some executives and coaches and players to think that it’s all about getting on base by drawing walks, and the fact is that guys who have the best on-base percentage are really dangerous hitters whenever they get a pitch in the strike zone,” La Russa said.

“You watch your productive hitters in the big leagues, and when they get a chance to drive in a run, they look for the first good strike. The better the pitching, especially this time of the year, when you get that first strike it may be the last one that you’re going to see. So you’d better be ready to swing early.”

So, La Russa concluded, Freese was correct both times because he swung at a good pitch even though it was the first.

La Russa was only kidding. He didn’t walk out on Moneyball. He went to see it on the night of that Game 6 rainout.

His reaction? “Good acting,” La Russa said in his evaluation of the movie. “I’m serious. Good acting. I mean, I was offended because of what the book represented, and I know a lot of those guys [who] were portrayed. I knew a few of those guys as scouts. It strains the credibility a little bit.”

I saw the movie twice and enjoyed it. Sure, there was no mention of how Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, Miguel Tejada and Eric Chavez contributed to that 102-win, 2002 season. But that wasn’t the point. Though Billy Beane found the low-cost gem in Scott Hatteberg to replace Jason Giambi at first base, he wasn’t able to follow his bliss and win the final game of the season. He still hasn’t.

For winning, is what it’s all about, isn’t it? No matter how you get there. With the highest payroll, lowest payroll or anything in between. In the end, the brightest general managers and managers of this day use it all: old school, new school, stats, scouting and the human element. That’s what I’ve learned over the course of 35 years. Don’t discount anything when it comes to winning.

“The win is the most important statistic in baseball,” D-backs manager Kirk Gibson told me this season. “That’s what we’re here for, isn’t it?”

Gibson won that last game twice as a player. One of them came four games after he hobbled off the bench as a Dodger and hit the most famous walk-off, pinch-hit homer in World Series history.  La Russa, Cox, Torre and Piniella combined to do it nine times.

Not bad.

PHOENIX — Giants fans may feel like they’re in free fall after watching the club deteriorate from World Series champions to National League West runner ups in less than a year.

But the stark truth is that aside from an 18-10 September 2010 and an 11-4 postseason run, this team is playing much as it did for the first five months last season.  The Giants had trouble scoring runs then when they clinched a playoff spot on the final day of the regular season and are in the same situation now.

But there are six primary reasons why the Giants  are such a sizable distance behind the D-backs with about three weeks to go:

1) Last year, Buster Posey was brought up to the Majors in late May and went on to have a Rookie of the Year season. This season turned for the worst on May 25 when the catcher was seriously injured in a collision at home plate. The Giants have played without Posey ever since and general manager Brian Sabean hasn’t been able to replace him with at least a viable front-line catcher.

2) Last year, after Madison Bumgarner was elevated to the Majors near the end of June, the five pitchers in the rotation made all of their starts for the remainder of the regular season or until Sabean and manager Bruce Bochy decided to drop Barry Zito from the postseason roster. This year, injuries to Zito and Jonathan Sanchez have placed an undo burden on Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain even though the 34-year-old Ryan Vogelsong emerged to have such a dramatic and surprising All-Star season.

3) Last year, Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell and Cody Ross were all taken off the scrap heap and contributed greatly to the cause. This year, Huff has reverted to previous form — regression to the mean it’s now called — Burrell has been injured, and Ross is only now generating some offense after opening the season on the disabled list with a calf injury. It’s no wonder that before Sabean signed them, Huff was left to languish as a free agent, Burrell was released by the Rays, and Ross was waived by the Marlins.

4) Last year, Brian Wilson was stellar when his 48 saves led the league. His strikes outs ended the NL Division Series, NL Championship Series and World Series. This year, the Beard  has been beset by injuries. It’s tough to do a Mariano Rivera year-in and year-out. Perhaps, like Rivera and the now retired Trevor Hoffman (more than 1,200 saves between them), Wilson should shave off the beard and take a more humble, low-key approach.

5)  Last year, second baseman Freddy Sanchez came off the disabled list in May, months after surgery on his left shoulder, and was a solid contributor even playing through the postseason with an injury to his other shoulder. This year, he damaged the right shoulder diving defensively and hasn’t played since June. The Giants are still trying to fill the void.

6) Last year, no one can minimize the contributions made by veterans Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria. Renteira, who was injured throughout the regular season, won Game 5 at Texas with a homer and was named World Series MVP.  Both left as free agents.This year, Sabean signed and subsequently released Miguel Tejada, and made a July trade for the over-the-hill Orlando Cabrera.

On all of this, Sabean didn’t catch lightening in a bottle twice.  Neither, unfortunately, did the Giants and their fans. That is why it’s so hard and frustrating to repeat.