Finally, Nate Silver misses one on Trout over Cabrera

Love, Nate. Great analysis about the AL MVP race in his Nov. 14 FiveThirtyEight blog.

Unfortunately the “traditionalists” overruled him by a huge margin as Miguel Cabrera won 27 of the 30 AL first place votes and defeated Mike Trout. Can’t take what Cabrera did out of context. His numbers were good enough THIS YEAR to win the Triple Crown and the Tigers won THEIR division and went to the World Series. Trout did none of this and neither did the Angels.

It was just the luck of bad timing that the rookie was sick during Spring Training and had to play his way into shape in the Minors in April. With Trout playing all season the Angels MIGHT not have opened 7-15. He might have had better numbers than Cabrera and the Angels might have gone to the Series. Then he could have been the MVP. Didn’t happen.

Easier to aggregate polls and pick the presidential winner than trying to determine what a diverse group of baseball writers are thinking. And many of them are stat geeks who evidently this time ignored many of the analytic numbers and voted for Cabrera. In the past, these same guys have given the Cy Young to Tim Lincecum with 16 wins and Felix Hernandez with 13.

Right or wrong, the fact that Cabrera was the first pure Triple Crown winner since Frank Robinson in 1966 proved to be overwhelming.

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